Written By David Gomez
The collapse of the agreement between the NDP and the Liberal Party signals what seems like an inevitable end for Justin Trudeau’s government. However, this situation does not suggest an imminent election, despite what Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre might desire. Instead, it is more of a prolonged agony for a government that is slowly running out of time.
For the past two years, the NDP’s support allowed the Liberals to push forward key policies and remain in power. Jagmeet Singh’s decision to pull the NDP from this agreement, while dramatic, is not a move designed to end Trudeau’s government immediately. Instead, it seems like a political move to distance the NDP from the failing Liberals while positioning themselves as a progressive force willing to stand against government shortcomings.
Singh has framed the withdrawal as a response to the Liberal government’s inability to deliver on core promises, particularly on issues like healthcare and social programs. The NDP has long championed these causes, and the breakdown of this agreement allows them to argue that they will no longer compromise on their progressive ideals. This allows Singh to appeal to his base while avoiding being seen as too aligned with the Liberals, who are facing increasing criticism from all sides.
Nevertheless, the end of this agreement does not automatically trigger a vote of no confidence, and I think the Liberal government will find ways to survive a little longer. It is also important to mention that the upcoming by-elections this month in Quebec and Manitoba are certainly important, and if they go badly for the Liberals, the pressure could increase, but I do not think this will lead to an immediate downfall.
In fact, this period of political uncertainty could drag on for quite some time. Poilievre and the Conservatives are eager for an early election, hoping to capitalize on the Liberal government’s unpopularity. Poilievre has positioned himself as the leader who can restore Canada’s economic stability, portraying the Trudeau government as out of touch with Canadians. His push for an early election is part of this broader strategy, designed to catch the Liberals off guard and force a vote before they can recover their footing.
Right now, Canadians are grappling with serious systemic problems that go far beyond the politicking of Parliament. Inflation continues to undermine family budgets, health systems are stretched to their limit, and housing remains unaffordable for many. These are the crises that should be the focus of political debate, but instead, much of the conversation has shifted to the question of whether an election is coming. This political posturing distracts from the real problems affecting Canadians, and it is frustrating to see the level of focus being placed on election timing rather than concrete solutions.
As for Trudeau, his government is clearly entering its final chapter. The end of the confidence-and-supply agreement is just one more sign that the political tides are turning against him. But it is undeniable that this government has shown a remarkable ability to hold on, even in the face of growing opposition. I expect that the Liberals will continue to cling to power as long as they can, avoiding an election until it becomes absolutely unavoidable. This isn’t about leadership or policy anymore; it’s about survival.
At the end of the day, this situation represents a slow, agonizing decline for a government that is nearing its end but is not quite ready to face it. The NDP’s decision to walk away from the agreement is a significant development, but it won’t bring the house down just yet. Poilievre’s calls for an early election may resonate with his base, but they are premature. For now, we are left watching as political manoeuvring takes centre stage, while the real problems facing the country—economic instability, healthcare crises, and housing shortages—continue to worsen. The election will come, but not as soon as some would hope.
