Corn: With the apparent bounce in corn prices of the last two weeks it would seem realistic that we’d see a bounce in 2025 corn acres versus soybeans in the fields come this spring. However, it will be probably related to whatever growing areas have a comparative advantage for corn over soybeans. For instance, some areas especially north of I-80 in the United States would likely be in a better position to produce better soybeans than corn. Whatever happens, is certainly taking place in the minds of the decision makers right now. It’s early, but we’d expect more corn acres in 2024. At the same time plans are certainly taking shape for the Brazilian Safrinha corn crop which will be planted after the soybean harvest. With the corn fundamentals being a little bit more friendly and the Brazilian currency much lower than the United States dollar it is shaping up for a maximum planting push for Brazilian corn post soybean harvest. This may have the capacity to temper corn prices a little bit later. The March 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 7.75 cents below the May 2025 contract a neutral indication of new crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The March 2025 corn futures contract is at the 27th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.
Soybeans: Soybeans might be the great liars but of course it’s always hard to tell when they’re lying. USDA actually took down the soybean production figure by 1 bushel per acre, but they left demand fairly strong. There were lots of farmers selling post USDA report on the soybeans. This surely will affect basis levels in the United States going forward as we all know that big Brazilian crop looms in the southern hemisphere.That Brazil soybean crop is doing well. Yes, they have had dryness in southern Brazil but so far it is not affected the market as much as the concern regarding Argentinian dryness. At the same time, we must remember that the Brazilian real is at a 22 year low versus U.S. dollar. That will make soybeans very attractive to Chinese buyers and make Brazilian farmers lean on the sell button once harvest is complete. The March 2025 soybean contract is currently priced 10.5 cents below the May 2025 contract considered neutral for soybeans. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The March 2025 soybean contract is currently at the 18th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.
Wheat: Wheat futures look as rough as usual. For instance, the nearby wheat contract reached new contract lows on the same day that soybeans and corn were racing up on the USDA report. The Russian wheat crop has gone into dormancy and with a poor narrative. In other words, even Russian analysts are saying it’s not too good. However, wheat is the cockroach of grains, so hard to determine how is doing and supply gaps are easily filled around the world. That overall global market picture really doesn’t bode well for Ontario wheat producers. However, we are used to that as a Canadian dollar under $0.70 does add stimulus to Ontario cash wheat prices. We’re looking at approximately 880,000 acres of Ontario wheat going into next year which is down from 1.1 million acres last year. Hopefully the winter is kind. That will largely determine how much wheat sees the light of day come this spring.