Corn: Compared to soybeans and wheat corn has been a stronger market. At the present time cash basis levels in the United States are surging as American farmers are reluctant sellers and demand is building. Unlike soybeans, there is not a weather market in corn like there is looking southward toward Brazilian soybean fields. That’s one reason that corn prices have held up a little better versus soybeans and wheat. Keep in mind that the USDA did give us a bit of a bullish stance on corn in their November 8th report. We are now expecting ending stocks of 1.9 billion bushels versus conventional wisdom earlier that ending stocks would build to something like 2.3 billion bushels. So, we’re heading in the right direction even though corn stocks are still onerous. The December 2024 corn contract is currently priced at 11.25 cents below the March 2025 contract which has contracted over the last month, but still a bearish indication of new crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The December 2024 futures contract is at the 22nd percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.
Soybeans: Soybean prices have been affected by not only the big crop in the United States but also what is coming in Brazilian production fields. At the present time Brazil soybean production looks fabulous and that is being reflected in market prices. However, keep in mind that hot and dry weather is being predicted far out in the early January. Which is critical for their soybean production. It is still too early to count the beans yet even though the market has. Soybean oil has lost ground recently and this is affected soybean prices falling over the last week. However, keep in mind that it also reflects the declining price of crude oil. Eventually this needs to go back up and when it does it should be a stimulus for soybean prices. The $10 mark will remain a bit about litmus test for futures prices to dance around as market fundamentals flex over the next several weeks. The January 2025 soybean contract is currently priced 10.25 cents below the March 2025 contract which has contracted but still considered bearish for soybeans. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2025 soybean contract is currently at the 19th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.
Wheat: Wheat prices are down and of course there’s always a lot of nonsensical reasons why that is happening. There is too much wheat but at the same time Russian ending stocks on wheat are declining. The Russian wheat crop that is in the ground now should be less than it was a year ago. Russian exports will likely be less next year. That should give us some bounce if not now in the future. However, wheat prices derived in Chicago have had the hammer of a rising U.S. dollar since the Trump election. This is always difficult for wheat prices, and it will likely continue as long as the US dollar is rising. Testing the August lows in Chicago wheat is something that Ontario wheat producers are unlikely to appreciate especially at a time when we had a beautiful fall where lots of wheat was planted in Ontario. Simply put, one of the biggest determinants of Ontario wheat planted acres is the weather in the fall. That should lead to over a million acres of wheat planted as we go into the end of the year. Cash prices of $6.81 a bushel for July 2025 is what that wheat is worth as we head into the end of November. Producers need to judge whether that gets better going forward.
