Corn: Corn seems to be above the fray with regard to tariff price action. There have been all kinds of bad news thrown at the corn market with regard to acres and oversupply, but the price keeps going sideways. On the global front the corn balance sheet is tighter than usual. Mexico the number one buyer of US corn seems intent on working with the Trump administration. The increased corn number from USDA has within it acres which are more fringe than prime Illinois corn country. Keep this in mind as we go forward because we’ll probably start out with the USDA projected yield of 181 bushels per acre. This will be difficult to get on these many corn acres. We did not get there last year. The May 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 7 cents below the July 2025 contract a neutral indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The May 2025 corn futures contract is at the 29th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.
Soybeans: The USDA did what it did with regard to a lower soybean acreage number and this should be positive for soybean prices. However, President Trump did what he did with regard to tariffs on China and we got the obligatory Chinese counter tariffs on US soybeans sending the market crashing down in the bean complex. It would seem obvious, there’s even less enthusiasm for planting beans now. In many ways that holds the potential for a further deterioration in soybean acres and prices especially when it comes to potential weather problems. If we have a wet and cool spring that might change things and get soybean acres back. However, if that doesn’t happen soybean acreage and morale might get even lower. The May 2025 soybean contract is currently priced 16 cents below the July 2025 contract considered bearish for soybeans. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The May 2025 soybean contract is currently at the 16th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.
Wheat: The wheat market almost never seems to be making sense. Gaps in supply are almost constantly filled by worldwide production, which continues. At the moment wheat has been affected by the tariff war with some countries such as South Korea, Japan and Mexico considering counter tariffs which may affect the wheat trade. Keep in mind, wheat movement is usually about “cheap” and that will continue. Cold weather in the American plains in the next few weeks has the capacity to damage American wheat and take prices higher. In Ontario producers are gauging the health of their wheat crop after a particularly difficult winter. In the next few weeks wheat farmers will continue to side dress with nitrogen in their never-ending battles to get big wheat yields. As it is, the low Canadian dollar at $0.70 is helping Ontario domestic wheat prices. However, these prices near $6.28 a bushel for old crop and $6.55 for new crop don’t give us a lot of solace. Another wheat price rally before harvest would be a blessing.
