Corn
On March 28th corn futures were $4.42 a bushel but on April the 11th about 11 trading days later it reached a high of $4.90 a bushel. In terms of a rally this was extremely impressive and there were lots of farmers selling’s $5.00 cash corn for July in many locations in the United states. The question is can we get to $5 futures in December corn?
Well, the USDA said on March 31st Americans will plant 95.3 million acres of corn. However, if you mix some bad weather into this will we get there? Anything less than that will certainly create the possibility for price movement into the $5 area for December 2025 corn. Simply put, we are at the start of the growing season and there’s lots of risk ahead and with that lots of possibility of price volatility.
The May 2025 corn contract is currently priced at 6.75 cents below the July 2025 contract a neutral indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The May 2025 corn futures contract is at the 35th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.
Soybeans
Keep in mind the USDA predicted 83.5 million acres of soybeans for this crop year. That is 4% less than last year and with that there should be greater risk of lower soybean supplies especially if we have hot and dry weather come to us in August. However, we are so far away from that now. Both corn and soybean futures have had a tailwind pushing them lately. It’s hard to say whether that will keep up or not.
We all know that tariffs have been tough on soybean prices however when China announced tariffs on American soybeans, we did see a rise of approximately $0.75 in soybean futures. It’s hard to substantiate that with any type of common-sense intuitive credibility. However, we know that markets hate uncertainty and maybe that’s why it happened in that way. Needless to say, even though much will depend on our growing season with regard to soybean prices, the bad geopolitics against soybeans remain. We will move ahead both looking at growing conditions and any other geopolitical moves by the United States, China and Brazil.
The May 2025 soybean contract is currently priced 9.75 cents below the July 2025 contract considered neutral to bullish for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The May 2025 soybean contract is currently at the 23rd percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.
Wheat
It is dry in American wheat country. Kansas is very dry and it has been almost hot in some places. You would think at some point it would have an effect on wheat prices. However, so far the market has yawned with wheat not going up in a similar fashion as corn and soybeans. As per usual, any particular concern with the wheat prices are always undercut by wheat prices in the Black Sea area. Russian and Ukrainian wheat is at a discount to everybody else and this will be a continuing challenge.
Ontario wheat prices continue to reflect the futures values which are at a low ebb. The Canadian dollar gaining 3 cents over the past month has also been a challenge for Ontario wheat prices. Wheat can always be a difficult crop to price especially with its production challenges. However, if a rally comes soon, it may be the chance for market orders to hit. As it is, the Ontario wheat crop looks pretty good as of April the 18th.
