CORN: It is historically the selling time in corn with June 18th being the proverbial date where good new crop prices could be had. However, even though that is the truth, we do not make the crop in June it is made more in July when “hot and dry” can be a real thing. As per usual this time of year the focus is on the USDA report coming out June 30th to see how many corn acres were lost to soybeans and the stocks numbers which are always important. Aside from the acreage switches the stocks numbers might give us clues on price direction as we head into hotter weather. If the stocks numbers are down for corn that will give impetus to end users to cover their positions. Needless to say, the USDA data dump on June 30th will be significant for futures price direction. The December 2024 corn contract is currently priced at 11 cents below the March 2025 contract which is a bearish indication of new crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The December 2024 futures contract is at the 34th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.
SOYBEANS: Will the 86.5 million acres of soybeans predicted earlier for the US come to fruition? We certainly shall see in the June 30th USDA report which will have significant impact on price direction going forward. Also too, we are not in a weather market now for soybeans but keep in mind it is that time of year where the trading algorithms have it all dialed in for “hot and dry.” That may impact soybean prices to some extent, but the main weather market for soybeans will come in August. China might still have an insatiable appetite for soybeans, but it’s mainly or only from Brazil. There are geopolitical reasons for this we have discussed ad nauseam. However, it is challenging for the Brazilians to keep doing this and we may see China come in to buy American soybeans. We have almost become accustomed to them not doing that. If it happens, in any significant way it will be bullish for soybean futures prices. Needless to say, as we move ahead having puts in place in this market can help us for any unforeseen downward price movement. The November 2024 soybean contract is currently priced 13.5 cents below the March 2025 contract which is considered bearish for new crop beans. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The November 2024 soybean contract is currently at the 42nd percentile of the past five-year price distribution range.
WHEAT: Wheat prices are down from a month ago and this is largely because wheat just comes out of the woodwork, like it always does. Earlier we had rallied particularly because of the problems in the Black Sea. Russian and Ukrainian wheat was not getting good weather, and this lowered expectations for a good crop. However, since then the Ukrainian estimates have actually gone up which is hard to believe especially in an area where war is ongoing. Russia still has their weather problems, but their wheat is rising in price and becoming uncompetitive in some markets in Egypt and North Africa. The Ontario wheat crop is ahead of schedule versus last years it should soon be coming off in Essex County come the first week in July. Generally speaking, it is a week to two weeks ahead of normal. Ontario farmers had the chance to contract this wheat for $8.50 a bushel last month before the erosion in wheat prices. Needless to say, the Canadian dollar is still a stimulus to Ontario cash wheat prices.
